2016 Global Outlook for the Air Transport Industry

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Continued record commercial aircraft production will be slowed slightly by model changes. New, clean sheet of paper models will be unlikely, but major upgrades of existing models will be more prevalent than ever before. However, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will have missteps during this process. Second and third tier suppliers will be most affected by the model changes.

They will be hard pressed to meet OEMs’ production schedules as they change. Because aircraft components are a just-in-time business, it may force suppliers into shelf stocking. The real opportunities are in the Asia-Pacific countries. New aircraft programs are under development there and, in the short term, may be good programs for existing suppliers. Eventually, those opportunities may evaporate as OEMs turn to local suppliers.

Key Findings:


- Delivery of first A320NEO to Lufthansa.

- PW1127G temperature issues progressively addressed with a fix to be available by Q2 2016, which should enable delivery to Qatar Airways.

- The major 2016 event to date was the $X Billion contract to supply planes to Iran. This news was particularly welcome for the A380 program.

- 2015 results: Airbus outsold Boeing by orders. Yet, Boeing led deliveries.


- The first flight of the 737-8 took place as planned in early 2016.

- Boeing is contemplating a larger version of the MAX to address the product gap; this option is restrained by the design limitations associated
with the structure.

- Production rates increase for the X family to X aircraft per month in 2019.

- Production rates to come down to X aircraft per month in 2017. Rates could fall to X per month in 2019 according to Bank of America but our forecast suggests -per-month.

- Production to rate per month by mid-2016 with a rate of likely by 2019.


- Air Canada’s letter of intent (LOI) for 45+30 CS300 to be delivered from 2019 raises the tally to planes, including firm orders.

- Republic Airways Holdings Inc. is filing Chapter 11 in the United States

- Despite the expected decision from United to select Boeing, it is reasonable to assume that one or more orders could materialize in 2016
from Delta, British Airways, Air China and China Southern.

- Quebec considers additional support for the BBD following last year’s $X Billion investment.


- The first C919 flight is likely to occur in H1 2017.

- System integration continues to represent the major element to address before production.

- Large orders from Chinese airlines are likely to materialize in 2017 once aircraft performance is validated.

- Questions remain as to an eventual escalated partnership with Bombardier in the near future.

- While issues remain, COMAC’s objectives are considered realistic and achievable. However, certification will present numerous challenges.


- A decline in sales is expected but overall strong performance is still anticipated; no recent mentions of next-generation turboprop (NGTP).

- Low fuel prices support sustained values for older aircraft.

- ATR to continue technology insertions on its current 42 and 72 products, likely in the areas of engines, composites, and power distribution.


- The rollout of MS-21 aircraft has been pushed back to July 2016 with a tentative first flight now scheduled for the end of the year.

- Possible issues have arisen related to Aviadvigatel PD -14 as an alternative to PW GTF outside of the Russian market.

- Western sanctions are encouraging UAC to source Russian engines for future designs.


- The E2 has been rolled out and will begin taxi tests shortly.

- Some concerns have arisen with Republic Airway’s Chapter 11 filing and United opting for Boeing’s 737-700.

- Brazilian defence budget decreases, combined with slow Phenom sales, have impacted financials.

- A strong backlog, rising margins, and strong cash flow will help Embraer support KC-390 and E2 programs.


- The MRJ program is facing serious delays due to issues identified during the aircraft’s first flights.

- New delivery target data negates any market entry timing advantage that Mitsubishi originally had over


- Design issues with wing and gear design, and their impact on aircraft weight, are delaying the program

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Research Scope and Segmentation

3. Key Global Aircraft Production and Delivery Trends

4. North America Analysis

5. Europe Analysis

6. Asia-Pacific Analysis

7. Middle East and Africa Analysis

8. Latin America Analysis

9. Key Trends to Watch - Air Transport Market

10. Technology Outlook

11. Key Conclusions

12. Appendix